基于综合权重法的页岩气储量评价方法探讨

张玲; 魏绍蕾; 黄学斌; 李军

doi:10.11781/sysydz201705694

基于综合权重法的页岩气储量评价方法探讨

doi: 10.11781/sysydz201705694

中国石化石油勘探开发研究院储量评估中心, 北京 100083

基金项目: 中国石化科技部项目“页岩气储量计算与评价方法研究”（P15110）；国家科技重大专项“大型油气田及煤层气开发”（2016ZX05060）联合资助。

详细信息

作者简介:
张玲(1962—),女,硕士,教授级高级工程师,从事储量计算评价与管理.E-mail:Zhangling.syky@sinopec.com.

中图分类号: TE155
计量
- 文章访问数: 999
- HTML全文浏览量: 90
- PDF下载量: 153
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-05-04
- 修回日期: 2017-07-17
- 刊出日期: 2017-09-28

Shale gas reserve quality evaluation based on a comprehensive weighting method

Reserve Evaluation Center, Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, SINOPEC, Beijing 100083, China

摘要

摘要: 针对页岩气地质特征和开采技术的特殊性，提出一种基于综合权重法的评价方法。通过综合考虑影响页岩气开发效果的各种因素，构建了页岩气储量综合评价指标体系；分别利用层次分析法和最大熵值法，求取主观权重和客观权重系数，综合主/客观权重的影响确定综合指标权重系数，结合储量级别与所掌握资料的可靠性分析，进而确定考虑风险的储量综合评价值。利用该方法对7个页岩气储量区块进行综合评价，给出储量品质的差异以及储量的升级动用排序。研究结果表明，对页岩气储量进行评价时，应综合考虑影响页岩气地质、开发、经济等多种因素，并且通过引入风险系数，确保评估结果更为合理，可为页岩气储量区块优选提供决策建议。
- 页岩气储量 /
- 主观权重 /
- 客观权重 /
- 风险系数
Abstract: A shale gas reserve quality evaluation approach based on the comprehensive weighting method was proposed according to geological characteristics and special development processes. Some key factors which have great impacts on shale gas production were selected to build an evaluation system. A hierarchical analytical method was used to calculate the subjective weighting factors and a maximum entropy method was used to calculate the objective weighting factors. A comprehensive evaluation model was built based on subjective and objective weight-ing factors. A development risk factor was determined after analyzing the completion and match with existing reserves data. Grades with or without a risk factor can be provided simultaneously. With the proposed method, the quality of seven shale gas reserves was compared and their development order was determined according to the ranking for undeveloped reserves. The results indicated that many factors including geological, development and economic factors should be taken into consideration for shale gas reserve evaluation. Meanwhile, risk factors should be introduced as an evaluation factor. The evaluation results considering comprehensive relevant factors are reasonable and effective and can provide useful suggestions for future shale gas reserve management.
- shale gas reserves /
- subjective weighting /
- objective weighting /
- risk factor

HTML全文

参考文献(18)

[1]	郭少斌,黄磊.页岩气储层含气性影响因素及储层评价：以上扬子古生界页岩气储层为例[J].石油实验地质,2013,35(6):601-606. Guo Shaobin,Huang Lei.Gas-bearing influential factors and evaluation of shale gas reservoir:A case study of Paleozoic shale gas reservoir in Upper Yangtze region[J].Petroleum Geology & Experiment,2013,35(6):601-606.
[2]	张玲,李军,卢泉杰,等.概率统计法在页岩气储量静态评估中的应用[J].石油实验地质,2016,38(1):141-146. Zhang Ling,Li Jun,Lu Quanjie,et al.Probabilistic method applied to the static evaluation of shale gas reserves[J].Petroleum Geology & Experiment,2016,38(1):141-146.
[3]	中华人民共和国国土资源部.DZ/T 0254-2014 页岩气资源/储量计算与评价技术规范[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2014. Ministry of Land and Resources of the People's Republic of China.DZ/T 0254-2014 Regulation of shale gas resources/reserves estimation[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2014.
[4]	Mallick M,Achalpurkar M P.Factors controlling shale gas production:Geological perspective[C]//Abu Dhabi international petroleum exhibition and conference.AbuDhabi,UAE:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2014.
[5]	Wang Hanyi.What factors control shale gas production decline trend:A comprehensive analysis and investigation[C]//SPE/IAEE hydrocarbon economics and evaluation symposium.Houston,Texas,USA:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2016.
[6]	Sun Hao,Chawathe A,Hoteit H,et al.Understanding shale gas production mechanisms through reservoir simulation[C]//SPE/EAGE European unconventional resources conference and exhibition.Vienna,Austria:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2014.
[7]	Glorioso J C,Rattia A J.Unconventional reservoirs:Basic petrophysical concepts for shale gas[C]//SPE/EAGE European unconventional resources conference and exhibition.Vienna,Austria:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2012:S280.
[8]	Williams-Kovacs J,Clarkson C R.Using stochastic simulation to quantify risk and uncertainty in shale gas prospecting and development[C]//Canadian unconventional resources conference.Calgary,Alberta,Canada:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2011.
[9]	Yu Wei,Tan Xiaosi,Zuo Lihua,et al.A new probabilistic approach for uncertainty quantification in well performance of shale gas reservoirs[J].SPE Journal,2016,21(6):2038-2048.
[10]	Wright J D.Economic evaluation of shale gas reservoirs[C]//SPE shale gas production conference.Fort Worth,Texas,USA:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2008.
[11]	Gray W M,Hoefer T A,Chiappe A,et al.A probabilistic approach to shale gas economics[C]//Hydrocarbon economics and evaluation symposium.Dallas,Texas,USA:Society of Petroleum Engineers,2007.
[12]	赵启双.辽河油区难采储量综合评价[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2003. Zhao Qishuang.Integrative evaluation of hard-to-recover reserves in Liaohe oil province[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing),2003.
[13]	陈仁保,师俊峰.神经网络系统在稠油区块优先动用排序中的应用[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2007,26(5):78-80. Chen Renbao,Shi Junfeng.Application of neural network system to ordering of development sequence for heavy oil blocks[J].Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing,2007,26(5):78-80.
[14]	刘永爱,董鸣皋.基于多属性决策的未动用油气储量评价方法研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2010,25(9):63-68. Liu Yong'ai,Dong Minggao.Evaluation of undeveloped oil & gas reserves based on multi-attribute decision-making[J].Statistics & Information Forum,2010,25(9):63-68.
[15]	张为民,薛培华.探明未开发储量的灰色评价方法[J].石油学报,1999,20(4):29-33. Zhang Weimin,Xue Peihua.Gray estimate method for the proved non-predicting reserve evaluation[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,1999,20(4):29-33.
[16]	郑得文.煤层气资源储量评估方法与理论研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2007. Zheng Dewen.The research on the methods and theories of estimation for coal gas resources and reserves[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2007.
[17]	黄学斌,魏萍,郭鸣黎,等.SEC储量成本指标计算方法探讨[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(4):506-510. Huang Xuebin,Wei Ping,Guo Mingli,et al.Discussion of cost index calculation method on SEC reserves[J].Petroleum Geo-logy & Experiment,2014,36(4):506-510.
[18]	魏萍,张玲,翟中喜,等.SEC石油储量替代率预测方法探讨[J].石油实验地质,2013,35(6):702-706. Wei Ping,Zhang Ling,Zhai Zhongxi,et al.Forecasting methods of SEC reserves replacement rate[J].Petroleum Geology & Experiment,2013,35(6):702-706.