An estimation method for hydrocarbon expected value of exploration target group in mature exploration area
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摘要: 我国的矿业权出让制度改革正在全面推进，合理评价区块期望价值对于油公司的区块进退决策至关重要。对于含有多个勘探目标的成熟探区，简单地将各目标价值相加通常会高估区块期望价值，应综合考虑两方面的因素：一是各勘探目标的地质情况，包括相对空间位置关系、地质成功率、资源规模和地质相关性等；二是油公司的勘探策略，包括干井承受能力、承诺钻井数量、对各目标的钻探次序等。为此，从油公司区块进退决策实际出发，提出一套基于概率论的勘探目标群期望价值估算方法，并通过实例讨论了上述因素对区块期望价值的影响。Abstract: The transfer system reform of mining rights in China is promoted in a comprehensive way. The rational evaluation of the expected value of blocks is crucial to the decision-making of bidding and exiting blocks for oil companies. As to the mature exploration area containing multiple exploration targets, adding up each expected value of each target simply usually over-estimates the expected value of blocks. Two factors should be comprehensively considered. The first one is geological conditions, including relative spatial relation, drilling success rate, resource scale and geological relation, etc. The second one is exploration strategy of oil company, including the bearing capacity of dry well, the number of commitment well and the drilling sorting of each exploration target, etc. Therefore, a set of estimation methods for exploration target group based on probabilistic theory was proposed from the oil company's practical decision-making of bidding and exiting blocks. The effect of the above factors on the expected value of blocks was also discussed using a specific block as an example.
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Key words:
- expected value /
- exploration target /
- probabilistic method /
- block evaluation
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图 4 5号目标保存因子(a)和资源量(b)概率分布模型
Figure 4. Probability distribution model of preservation (a) and resources (b) of target No.5
图 5 勘探目标群T期望价值的蒙特卡洛模拟流程
Figure 5. Monte Carlo simulation workflow of expected value of exploration target group T
表 1 勘探目标群S资源量
Table 1. Resources of exploration target group S
目标 圈闭概率 充注概率 储层概率 保存概率 地质成功率 资源量均值/104t A 0.70 0.70 0.80 0.75 0.294 540 B 0.75 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.336 160 
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表 2 勘探目标A获得发现条件下的全部情景
Table 2. All scenarios under the discovery of exploration target A
情况 发生概率 资源量/104 t 含油气概率×资源量/104 t A成功、B失败 0.117 6 540 63.504 A、B均成功 0.176 4 700 123.480 合计 0.294 0 186.984 A成功下的资源量：186.984/0.294=636(104 t)
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表 3 不同相对空间位置关系下S的期望价值对比
Table 3. Comparison of expected value of S under different relative spatial relations
空间位置关系 计算方法 钻探成功率 成功条件下资源量/104 t 期望价值/万元 纵向叠置 A、B至少一个成功 0.454 469 2 648 横向展布 优先钻探A并成功 0.294 636 2 099
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表 4 勘探目标群T各目标含油气概率及资源量
Table 4. Hydrocarbon-bearing probability and resources of each target of exploration target group T
勘探目标 圈闭概率 充注概率 储层概率 保存概率 地质成功率 资源量均值/104t 1号 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.352 8 41 2号 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.352 8 122 3号 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.352 8 176 4号 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.352 8 188 5号 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.345 6 1 637 6号 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.345 6 581 7号 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.345 6 133
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表 5 勘探目标群T在不同干井承受数量下的期望价值
Table 5. Expected value of exploration target group T under different dry well bearing amounts
不同干井承受数量 承诺1口井 承诺2口井 承诺3口井 资源量/104 t 791 946 986 期望价值/万元 11 215 13 861 14 016
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表 6 勘探目标群T在改变钻探次序后，不同干井承受数量下的期望价值
Table 6. Expected value of exploration target group T under different dry well bearing amount after changing the drilling order
不同干井承受数量 承诺1口井 承诺2口井 承诺3口井 资源量/104 t 498 756 878 期望价值/万元 6 830 11 010 11 177
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