油气区带风险评价方法

刘曾勤; 吕睿

doi:10.11781/sysydz2022061081

油气区带风险评价方法

doi: 10.11781/sysydz2022061081

刘曾勤^1,,
吕睿²

1.
中国石化石油勘探开发研究院，北京 102206
2.
中国石化国际石油勘探开发有限公司，北京 100029

基金项目:

国家科技重大专项“南大西洋两岸盆地成藏条件及战略选区” 2016ZX05033001-003

详细信息

作者简介:
刘曾勤(1985—)，男，博士，副研究员，从事资源评价、层序地层、地震解释、地质建模等研究。E-mail: liuzengqin.syky@sinopec.com

中图分类号: TE15
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-08-16
- 修回日期: 2022-10-12
- 刊出日期: 2022-11-28

Play risk evaluation for hydrocarbon exploration

LIU Zengqin^1
,,
LÜ Rui²

1.
Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, SINOPEC, Beijing 102206, China
2.
International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, SINOPEC, Beijing 100029, China

摘要

摘要: 风险和不确定性是油气区带勘探的固有属性，周详的勘探计划需要规避风险和准确认识不确定性。根据中国石化海外油气勘探项目特点，以及国际公司勘探项目评价标准，通过定量评估油气区带的油气生排烃能力、储层质量、封盖条件和圈闭有效性，建立油气区带风险赋值标准和评价流程。基于油气区带的数据密度、覆盖范围和地质认识，按照木桶理论确定4个风险要素的存在概率，将每个因素的风险概率值相乘获得油气区带的地质成功概率。该评价方法提供了一种将定性地质认识和勘探信息，定量转化为各个要素风险概率及区带整体的地质成功概率。地质成功概率综合反映了区带的勘探程度和地质特征，决定了油气勘探风险的大小。油气区带风险评价方法可以优选勘探区，聚焦勘探评价工作，为勘探投资决策提供科学依据。
- 油气区带 /
- 区带风险 /
- 不确定性 /
- 地质成功概率 /
- 油气评价
Abstract: Risk and uncertainty are coherent attributes in hydrocarbon play exploration, and comprehensive exploration strategy requires a deliberate consideration of risk aversion and an faithful understanding of uncertainty. According to the characteristics of SINOPEC oversea oil and gas exploration projects, as well as the exploration project evaluation criteria of international oil companies, this paper describes the establishment of value-determined standards and hydrocarbon play risk workflow by quantitative assessment of hydrocarbon generation and charge capability, reservoir quality, preservation condition, and trap validity of a play. According to data density, coverage and geological understanding, in accordance with bucket theory, the probabilities of occurrence of four risk factors were determined, and the chance of geologic success (COGS) of a play was obtained by multiplying the probabilities of each risk factor. This workflow provided a method for transferring qualitative geological understanding and exploration data to quantitatively assess the risk probability of each factors and overall COGS. The COGS values determine the play risk, which is a comprehensive reflection of the exploration phase and geological characteristics of the study block. The play risk workflow facilitates high grading areas, allows a focus on the exploratory and appraisal aspects, and provides a scientific basis for exploration investment decision.
- hydrocarbon play /
- play risk /
- uncertainty /
- chance of geologic success /
- hydrocarbon evaluation

HTML全文

图 1 生排烃能力风险评价标准

Figure 1. Assessment standards of hydrocarbon generation and charge risk

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图 2 区带A生排烃风险评价

Figure 2. Hydrocarbon generation and charge risk of the play A

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图 3 储层质量风险评价标准

Figure 3. Assessment standards of reservoir quality risk

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图 4 区带A储层质量风险评价

Figure 4. Reservoir quality risk of the play A

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图 5 区带A盖层条件风险评价

Figure 5. Seal integrity risk of the play A

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图 6 盖层条件风险评价标准

Figure 6. Assessment standards of seal integrity risk

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图 7 圈闭有效性评价标准

Figure 7. Assessment standards of trap effectiveness risk

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图 8 区带A圈闭有效性风险评价

Figure 8. Trap effectiveness risk of the play A

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图 9 区带A整体区带风险评价

Figure 9. Overall play risk of the play A

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表 1 区带要素风险(P)分类

Table 1. Risk category of factors of a play

风险分类	解释结果	数据密度、覆盖范围
低风险 (P≥0.7)	几乎所有数据都是正面的结果	数据可靠，覆盖范围广，可靠性高
相对低风险 (0.5 < P < 0.7)	主要数据是正面的结果	数据量不多，通过类比等手段
相对高风险 (0.3 < P < 0.5)	主要数据是负面的结果	数据量不多，通过类比等手段
高风险 (P≤0.3)	几乎所有数据都是负面的结果	数据可靠，覆盖范围广，可靠性高

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