Application and discussion of expected monetary value (EMV) method in domestic shale gas block bidding
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摘要: 矿权竞标结果受多种因素影响，具有较强的不确定性。特别是在低勘探程度区，如何准确开展区块经济评价是目前亟待解决的一个重点问题。以预期货币价值法(EMV)为基础，考虑“风险—价值”双因素模型量化地质风险，运用概率分布模型量化资源量的不确定性，明确关键参数的选取依据，梳理出针对低勘探程度区页岩气区块的经济评价方案，并应用于南方滇黔桂盆地桂中坳陷页岩气某区块。该方法综合考虑了资源潜力、工程技术条件、开发方案、预期经济价值及油气补贴政策等不同方案组合下的多个场景，形成的多套经济评价方案可为决策者提供多样化的区块经济评价参数数据，能有效指导区块竞标方案决策。Abstract: The result of mining right bidding, affected by many factors, has strong uncertainty. Especially in areas with low exploration degree, how to accurately carry out block economic evaluation is a key issue in current research. Based on the expected monetary value (EMV) method, this paper considers the "risk-value" two-factor model to quantify the geological risk, uses the probability distribution model to quantify the uncertainty of resources, defines the basis for the selection of key parameters, sorts out the economic evaluation scheme for shale gas blocks in areas with low exploration degree, and carries out the application to a shale gas block in the Guizhong Depression in Dianqiangui Basin, southern China. The results show that the method comprehensively considers multiple scenarios under different combinations of schemes, such as resource potential, engineering and technical conditions, development scheme, expected economic value, and oil and gas subsidy policies. The multiple sets of economic evaluation schemes formed can provide diversified block economic evaluation parameter data for decision makers, and can effectively guide the decision-making of block bidding scheme.
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图 1 2020年底以来全国石油、天然气探矿权出让区块数量统计
Figure 1. Statistics on number of oil and gas mining rights transferred blocks in China since the end of 2020
图 2 典型勘探区块预期货币价值(EMV)评估方法决策树
Figure 2. Decision tree of EMV evaluation method for typical exploration blocks
图 3 地质评价参数及地质资源量概率分布曲线
Figure 3. Probability distribution curves of geological evaluation parameters and resources under logarithmic coordinates
图 4 页岩气商业成功概率获取模型
Figure 4. Acquisition model for probability of shale gas commercial success
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