A method for evaluating the potential of reserve upgrading based on quantitative uncertainty
-
摘要: 未升级、动用储量多数为低品位储量，如何评价储量升级动用潜力是迫切需要解决的问题。低品位储量存在地质条件复杂、储层非均质性强、数据资料有限和阶段认识局限等不确定性，常规评价方法效果不佳。为此，建立了一套基于量化不确定性的储量升级动用潜力评价方法，实现了3个方面的改进：一是改变了以往国内储量采用确定性法估算的唯一值，储量用范围值来描述不确定性，并提出了用确定性程度来定量表征储量的风险；二是建立了储量升级动用潜力评价指标体系、关键参数不确定性的评价方法及评价流程；三是由以往重视储量规模向储量价值转变，利用风险-价值评估技术，建立了“确定性程度、单位储量/资源量价值和储量/资源量”的三因素潜力评价模型，潜力区块划分为四类，即Ⅰ类低风险高价值、Ⅱ类低风险低价值、Ⅲ类高风险高价值和IV类高风险低价值，从而实现储量-产量-价值评估三统一的潜力评价平台。通过应用实例表明，利用上述方法可以有效地实现储量升级动用潜力评价和目标优选，筛选出的升级动用潜力区块与后续的升级动用效果基本吻合，验证了上述方法的可靠性与合理性。Abstract: Most of the initial in-place and undeveloped OOIP are low-grade reserves, and how to evaluate their potential is an urgent problem. There are many uncertainties in low-grade reserves, such as complex geological conditions, strong reservoir heterogeneity, limited data and limited geological knowledge. The reliability of the conventional evaluation method is poor. Therefore, a series of systematic evaluation methods for initial in-place and undeveloped OOIP on the basis of quantitative uncertainty was proposed, which mainly focused on three improvements. Firstly, the range value was used to describe the uncertainty of OOIP, which changed the unique value estimated by the certainty method in the past. The degree of certainty was proposed to quantitatively characterize the risk of reserves. Secondly, the evaluation index system, the evaluation method and the evaluation process of uncertainty of the key parameters were established. Thirdly, the new method was changed from the previous emphasis on reserve scale to reserve value, established a three-factor model of "the degree of certainty-unit reserves/resources value and the scale of reserves/resources" by applying risk-value assessment technology. Potential blocks were divided into four categories, namely type Ⅰ with low risk and high value, type Ⅱ with low risk and low value, type Ⅲ with high risk and high value, and type Ⅳ with high risk and low value. In this way, a potential evaluation platform combining reserves, production and value evaluation was proposed. The application of the method showed that it can effectively evaluate the reserve upgrading and development potential and optimize the blocks, and the selected blocks are basically consistent with the subsequent upgrading and development of potential blocks, which verified the reliability and rationality of the method.
-
图 2 储量升级动用潜力评价模型示意
Figure 2. Model of reserve upgrade and development potential evaluation system
图 3 70美元油价下P级储量区块潜力评价
Figure 3. Potential evaluation chart of reserve blocks for ＄70 oil price
图 4 70美元油价下C级储量区块潜力评价
Figure 4. Potential evaluation chart of contingent resource blocks for ＄70 oil price
表 1 储量升级动用潜力评价指标体系的不确定性描述
Table 1. Uncertainty description of reserve upgrade and development potential evaluation index system
序号 一级指标 二级指标 评价方法 不确定性关键参数 不确定性影响因素 1 储量/资源量 原地量 概率法、确定性(增量)法和确定性(方案或情景)法 含油气面积、有效厚度、有效孔隙度、含油气饱和度、原油体积系数等 地震资料、时深转换、储层连续性、储层品质、已知烃底和推测的充注高度、流体性质、油气藏类型等 技术可采量 理论公式、经验公式或类比法 采收率 驱动机理、水或气窜、地层伤害、注入压力、设备完整性、计量精度、垂直举升和改善开发效果等 2 单位储量/资源量价值 剩余经济可采量和储量/资源量价值 现金流法、类比法(对比销售法)、经验法(单位储量价值法、单位产量价值法和利润投资比率法)等 初产、递减率、投资、成本、油价 价格、成本、商业性、法律、政治、财税体制等 3 确定性程度 原地量P90和P50 概率法、增量法和情景法 含油气面积、有效厚度等 地震资料、时深转换、储层连续性、储层品质、已知烃底和推测的充注高度、流体性质、油气藏类型等 
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局, 中国国家标准化管理委员会. 石油天然气资源/储量分类: GB/T 19492-2004[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2004: 1-6.General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China, Standardization Administration of China. Classifications for petroleum resources/reserves: GB/T 19492-2004[S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2004: 1-6. [2] 吕鸣岗, 程永才, 袁自学, 等. 石油天然气储量计算规范: DZ/T 0217-2005[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2005: 7-33.LV Minggang, CHENG Yongcai, YUAN Zixue, et al. Regulation of petroleum reserves estimation: DZ/T 0217-2005[S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2005: 7-33. [3] 杨通佑, 范尚炯, 陈元千, 等. 石油及天然气储量计算方法[M]. 2版. 北京: 石油工业版社, 1998: l7-39.YANG Tongyou, FAN Shangjiong, CHEN Yuanqian, et al. Estimation approach for oil and gas[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 1998: 17-39. [4] 中石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院. 中国石油天然气集团公司建设项目经济评价参数[R]. 北京: 中国石油天然气集团有限公司, 2017.China Petroleum and Petrochemical Engineering Institute. Economic evaluation parameters of the investment project of PetroChina Company Limited[R]. Beijing: Petro China Company Limited, 2017. [5] 何鲜, 石占中, 周宗良. 难动用储量油藏评价方法[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2005.HE Xian, SHI Zhanzhong, ZHOU Zongliang. Difficult-to-production reserves exploitation technologies[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2005. [6] 刘国全, 贾丽, 刘娟霞, 等. 石油探明储量增长趋势预测方法及应用[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2014, 19(4): 70-74. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201404010.htmLIU Guoquan, JIA Li, LIU Juanxia, et al. Prediction method of proven oil reserve growth trend and its application[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2014, 19(4): 70-74. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201404010.htm [7] 庄丽, 张玲. 基于控制储量升级率的油气探明储量增长趋势研究[J]. 油气地质与采收率, 2012, 19(2): 90-92. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS201202030.htmZHUANG Li, ZHANG Ling. Growth trend study of proved oil and gas reserves based on the upgrade rate of probable reserves[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency, 2012, 19(2): 90-92. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS201202030.htm [8] 朱杰, 车长波, 刘成林, 等. 储量增长预测模型的对比分析[J]. 西安石油大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 23(5): 21-23. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-064X.2008.05.005ZHU Jie, CHE Changbo, LIU Chenglin, et al. Contrastive analysis of reserves increasing prediction models[J]. Journal of Xi'an Shiyou University (Natural Science Edition), 2008, 23(5): 21-23. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-064X.2008.05.005 [9] 李国欣, 郭绪杰, 杜金虎, 等. 勘探对标管理指标体系模型研究及应用[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2019, 24(1): 7-15. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201901002.htmLI Guoxin, GUO Xujie, DU Jinhu, et al. Research and application of the index system model of exploration benchmarking management[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(1): 7-15. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201901002.htm [10] 刘瑞娟. 统计法在渤南洼陷南斜坡沙三段资源潜力评价中的应用[J]. 特种油气藏, 2019, 26(6): 41-45. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ201906007.htmLIU Ruijuan. Application of statistical method in the resource potential evaluation of Sha-3 Member in the south slope of south Bohai Depression[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2019, 26(6): 41-45. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ201906007.htm [11] ETHERINGTON J R, RITTER J E. The 2007 SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE petroleum resources management system (PRMS)[J]. Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology, 2008, 47(8): 15-17. [12] ZAINUL A J, NOR R M, HONG T Y, et al. An integrated approach to petroleum resources definitions, classification and reporting[C]//SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: SPE, 1997. [13] PUREWAL S, ROSS J G, RODRIGUEZ J M, et al. Guidelines for application of the petroleum resources management system[R]. [S.l.]: Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2011. [14] SPE/AAPG/WPC/SPEE 2018-Petroleum resources management system (PRMS)[S]. 2018. [15] 胡允栋. 基于不确定性分析的油气储量分类与评估方法[D]. 北京: 中国地质大学(北京), 2007: 25-67.HU Yundong. Oil and gas reserve classification and estimation on the basis of uncertainty analysis[D]. Beijing: China University of Geosciences (Beijing), 2007: 25-67. [16] 李秀. SPE关于储量级别的划分与确定[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2010, 15(4): 52-56. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201004011.htmLI Xiu. Classifications and establishment of SPE reserves[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2010, 15(4): 52-56. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201004011.htm [17] 黄学斌, 李军, 闫相宾, 等. 圈闭资源量参数概率分布及有效性检验[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2014, 35(4): 577-584. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201404019.htmHUANG Xuebin, LI Jun, YAN Xiangbin, et al. Probability distribution of parameters for trap resources assessment and its validation[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2014, 35(4): 577-584. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201404019.htm [18] 邓聚龙. 灰色系统: 社会·经济[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 1985.DENG Julong. Gray system[M]. Beijing: National Defence Industry Press, 1985. [19] 刘永爱, 董鸣皋. 基于多属性决策的未动用油气储量评价方法研究[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2010, 25(9): 63-68. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TJLT201009014.htmLIU Yongai, DONG Minggao. Evaluation of undeveloped oil & gas reserves based on multi-attribute decision-making[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2010, 25(9): 63-68. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TJLT201009014.htm [20] 刘斌, 任芳祥, 易维容. 探明未动用储量经济评价方法探讨[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2003, 8(4): 67-70. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY200304013.htmLIU Bin, REN Fangxiang, YI Weirong. Discussion on the methods of economic evaluation for undeveloped OOIP[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2003, 8(4): 67-70. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY200304013.htm [21] 郭鸣黎, 陈凌, 汪桂敏, 等. SEC准则下缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏储量评估及应用实例探究[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2020, 10(2): 11-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202002003.htmGUO Mingli, CHEN Ling, WANG Guiming, et al. Inquiry into evaluation methods and its application for reserves of carbonate fractured-vuggy reservoirs under SEC rules[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2020, 10(2): 11-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202002003.htm [22] 朱桂良, 孙建芳, 刘中春. 塔河油田缝洞型油藏气驱动用储量计算方法[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2019, 40(2): 436-442. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201902023.htmZHU Guiliang, SUN Jianfang, LIU Zhongchun. An approach to calculate developed reserves in gas drive fractured-vuggy reservoirs in Tahe oilfield[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2019, 40(2): 436-442. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT201902023.htm [23] 赵启双. 辽河油区难采储量综合评价[D]. 北京: 中国地质大学, 2002.ZHAO Qishuang. Integrative evaluation of hard-to-recover reserves in Liaohe oil field[D]. Beijing: China University of Geosciences, 2002. [24] 杨正明, 张英芝, 郝明强, 等. 低渗透油田储层综合评价方法[J]. 石油学报, 2006, 27(2): 64-67. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB200602013.htmYANG Zhengming, ZHANG Yingzhi, HAO Mingqiang, et al. Comprehensive evaluation of reservoir in low-permeability oilfields[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2006, 27(2): 64-67. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB200602013.htm [25] 杨子由, 陈民锋, 屈丹, 等. 特低渗透各向异性油藏井网加密储量动用规律[J]. 油气地质与采收率, 2020, 27(3): 57-63. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS202003008.htmYANG Ziyou, CHEN Minfeng, QU Dan, et al. Reserve producing law of extra-low permeability anisotropic reservoirs with infilled well pattern[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency, 2020, 27(3): 57-63. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS202003008.htm [26] 尹万泉, 武毅, 于军. 辽河油田SEC动态储量关键影响因素分析[J]. 特种油气藏, 2019, 26(2): 87-90. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ201902015.htmYIN Wanquan, WU Yi, YU Jun. Key influencing factor analysis of the SEC dynamic reserve in Liaohe oilfield[J]. Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs, 2019, 26(2): 87-90. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TZCZ201902015.htm [27] 罗波, 王兴明, 赵敏, 等. 已探明未开发储量评价动用优选研究[J]. 西南石油大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 15(2): 5-9. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-PXSY201302003.htmLUO Bo, WANG Xingming, ZHAO Min, et al. Research on optimizing proven undeveloped reserves[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum University (Social Sciences Edition), 2013, 15(2): 5-9. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-PXSY201302003.htm [28] 牛彦良, 吴畏. 未动用储量优选评价分析方法[J]. 石油学报, 2006, 27(S1): 115-118. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB2006S1027.htmNIU Yanliang, WU Wei. Optimized selection and evaluation method for nonproducing reserves[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2006, 27(S1): 115-118. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB2006S1027.htm [29] 覃利娟. 概率法在油气储量不确定性分析中的应用[J]. 断块油气田, 2019, 26(6): 723-727. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT201906010.htmQIN Lijuan. Application of probability method to uncertainty analysis of oil and gas reserves[J]. Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field, 2019, 26(6): 723-727. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT201906010.htm [30] 冯国庆, 张烈辉, 沈勇伟, 等. 应用模糊聚类分析方法评价油藏质量[J]. 西南石油学院学报, 2004, 26(3): 33-36. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XNSY200403008.htmFENG Guoqing, ZHANG Liehui, SHEN Yongwei, et al. Reservoir quality evaluation by fuzzy clustering analysis method[J]. Journal of Southwest Petroleum Institute, 2004, 26(3): 33-36. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XNSY200403008.htm [31] 易德生, 郭萍. 灰色理论与方法[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 1989.YI Desheng, GUO Ping. Grey theory and method[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 1989. -
图(4) / 表(1)
计量
- 文章访问数: 345
- HTML全文浏览量: 105
- PDF下载量: 72
- 被引次数: 0
苏公网安备32021102000780号