A method for evaluating the potential of reserve upgrading based on quantitative uncertainty
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摘要: 未升级、动用储量多数为低品位储量，如何评价储量升级动用潜力是迫切需要解决的问题。低品位储量存在地质条件复杂、储层非均质性强、数据资料有限和阶段认识局限等不确定性，常规评价方法效果不佳。为此，建立了一套基于量化不确定性的储量升级动用潜力评价方法，实现了3个方面的改进：一是改变了以往国内储量采用确定性法估算的唯一值，储量用范围值来描述不确定性，并提出了用确定性程度来定量表征储量的风险；二是建立了储量升级动用潜力评价指标体系、关键参数不确定性的评价方法及评价流程；三是由以往重视储量规模向储量价值转变，利用风险-价值评估技术，建立了“确定性程度、单位储量/资源量价值和储量/资源量”的三因素潜力评价模型，潜力区块划分为四类，即Ⅰ类低风险高价值、Ⅱ类低风险低价值、Ⅲ类高风险高价值和IV类高风险低价值，从而实现储量-产量-价值评估三统一的潜力评价平台。通过应用实例表明，利用上述方法可以有效地实现储量升级动用潜力评价和目标优选，筛选出的升级动用潜力区块与后续的升级动用效果基本吻合，验证了上述方法的可靠性与合理性。Abstract: Most of the initial in-place and undeveloped OOIP are low-grade reserves, and how to evaluate their potential is an urgent problem. There are many uncertainties in low-grade reserves, such as complex geological conditions, strong reservoir heterogeneity, limited data and limited geological knowledge. The reliability of the conventional evaluation method is poor. Therefore, a series of systematic evaluation methods for initial in-place and undeveloped OOIP on the basis of quantitative uncertainty was proposed, which mainly focused on three improvements. Firstly, the range value was used to describe the uncertainty of OOIP, which changed the unique value estimated by the certainty method in the past. The degree of certainty was proposed to quantitatively characterize the risk of reserves. Secondly, the evaluation index system, the evaluation method and the evaluation process of uncertainty of the key parameters were established. Thirdly, the new method was changed from the previous emphasis on reserve scale to reserve value, established a three-factor model of "the degree of certainty-unit reserves/resources value and the scale of reserves/resources" by applying risk-value assessment technology. Potential blocks were divided into four categories, namely type Ⅰ with low risk and high value, type Ⅱ with low risk and low value, type Ⅲ with high risk and high value, and type Ⅳ with high risk and low value. In this way, a potential evaluation platform combining reserves, production and value evaluation was proposed. The application of the method showed that it can effectively evaluate the reserve upgrading and development potential and optimize the blocks, and the selected blocks are basically consistent with the subsequent upgrading and development of potential blocks, which verified the reliability and rationality of the method.
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图 2 储量升级动用潜力评价模型示意
Figure 2. Model of reserve upgrade and development potential evaluation system
图 3 70美元油价下P级储量区块潜力评价
Figure 3. Potential evaluation chart of reserve blocks for ＄70 oil price
图 4 70美元油价下C级储量区块潜力评价
Figure 4. Potential evaluation chart of contingent resource blocks for ＄70 oil price
表 1 储量升级动用潜力评价指标体系的不确定性描述
Table 1. Uncertainty description of reserve upgrade and development potential evaluation index system
序号 一级指标 二级指标 评价方法 不确定性关键参数 不确定性影响因素 1 储量/资源量 原地量 概率法、确定性(增量)法和确定性(方案或情景)法 含油气面积、有效厚度、有效孔隙度、含油气饱和度、原油体积系数等 地震资料、时深转换、储层连续性、储层品质、已知烃底和推测的充注高度、流体性质、油气藏类型等 技术可采量 理论公式、经验公式或类比法 采收率 驱动机理、水或气窜、地层伤害、注入压力、设备完整性、计量精度、垂直举升和改善开发效果等 2 单位储量/资源量价值 剩余经济可采量和储量/资源量价值 现金流法、类比法(对比销售法)、经验法(单位储量价值法、单位产量价值法和利润投资比率法)等 初产、递减率、投资、成本、油价 价格、成本、商业性、法律、政治、财税体制等 3 确定性程度 原地量P90和P50 概率法、增量法和情景法 含油气面积、有效厚度等 地震资料、时深转换、储层连续性、储层品质、已知烃底和推测的充注高度、流体性质、油气藏类型等 
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