Evaluation of upgrading potential and strategy for inferred initially in-place petroleum
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摘要: 在低油价形势下，保有预测储量的有效升级动用是大家关注的焦点问题。目前保有石油预测储量基数大，缺乏针对预测储量升级潜力评价的系统性研究。采用漏斗筛选模型分层次建立清晰有效的预测储量升级潜力评价方法流程体系，强调升级过程中各阶段风险的评价和控制。为了最大程度降低地质风险评价中的人为因素影响，首次采用距离综合评价方法(TOPSIS法)对影响储量升级的地质因素进行评价，此方法应用于渤海湾盆地碎屑岩油藏，优选出升级潜力区块11个，取得良好的应用效果。研究结果表明，预测储量不确定性较大，在升级过程中，及时识别风险，找出难点，制定行之有效的升级策略，采用与之相适应的技术手段，寻求突破，才能进一步推动储量的高效升级动用。Abstract: Under the background of low oil price, the effective upgrading and utilization of the inferred initially in-place petroleum reserves are essential. At present, there is a large quantity of existing inferred initially in-place petroleum, but there is no systematic study on the evaluation of the upgrading potential. In this paper, a funnel screening method is used to establish a clear and effective evaluation procedure and to focus on the evaluation and control of risks in each stage of the process. In order to minimize the influence of human factors in geological risk assessment, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to evaluate the geological factors that affect the reserves upgrading for the first time. Eleven potential upgrading blocks have been selected and achieved good results in clastic rock reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin. The research results show that the uncertainty of the predicted reserves is large. In the upgrading process, the risks and difficulties should be identified in time. The corresponding technical measures are taken and the strategy are proposed, which provides guarantee for the further efficient and economic upgrading of reserves.
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图 1 预测储量升级潜力评价流程
Figure 1. Evaluation of upgrading potential of inferred petroleum initially in place
图 2 地质风险及开发技术风险双因素评价
Figure 2. Two-factor evaluation of geological risks and development technology risks
图 4 渤海湾盆地某油田B区块沙一段2砂组预测储量含油面积示意
Figure 4. Oil bearing area of predicted reserves in sand group 2 in first member of Shahejie Formation, block B, X oil field, Bohai Bay Basin
图 5 渤海湾盆地某油田B区块沙一段2砂组控制储量含油面积示意
Figure 5. Oil bearing area of controlled reserves in sand group 2 in first member of Shahejie Formation, block B, X oil field, Bohai Bay Basin
表 1 评价区块地质因素标准化参数
Table 1. Standardized parameters of geological factors of evaluation blocks
区块 标准化有效厚度 标准化有效孔隙度 标准化渗透率 标准化埋深 标准化丰度 A1 0.09 0.81 1.00 0.67 0.53 A2 0.09 0.72 0.25 0.93 0.18 A3 0.14 1.00 0.60 0.90 0.69 A4 0.01 0.81 0.17 0.77 0.35 A5 0.14 0.40 0.97 1.00 0.49 A6 0.03 0.75 0.04 0.97 0.29 A7 0.36 0.12 0.05 0.35 0.42 A8 0.08 0.80 0.43 0.66 0.36 A9 1.00 0.00 0.01 0.36 1.00 A10 0.40 0.12 0.00 0.32 0.50 A11 0.05 0.40 0.07 0.19 0.16 A12 0.05 0.28 0.00 0.23 0.20 A13 0.06 0.28 0.00 0.09 0.23 A14 0.09 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.08 A15 0.05 0.36 0.01 0.16 0.25 A16 0.18 0.02 0.00 0.24 0.18 A17 0.00 0.40 0.04 0.33 0.09 A18 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.00 A19 0.02 0.28 0.51 0.30 0.10 A20 0.11 0.19 0.09 0.70 0.11 A21 0.27 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.13 A22 0.08 0.12 0.07 0.46 0.16 
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表 2 评价区块TOPSIS参数及开发技术风险参数
Table 2. TOPSIS parameters and development technical risk parameters of evaluation blocks
区块 距最优样本距离di+ 距最劣样本距离di- 贴近度评价因子ci+ 开发技术风险性 A1 1.10 1.54 0.42 0.20 A2 1.46 1.22 0.55 0.55 A3 1.00 1.64 0.38 0.57 A4 1.48 1.18 0.56 0.45 A5 1.16 1.54 0.43 0.52 A6 1.56 1.26 0.55 0.53 A7 1.69 0.66 0.72 0.30 A8 1.32 1.18 0.53 0.32 A9 1.55 1.46 0.51 0.45 A10 1.69 0.72 0.70 0.72 A11 1.87 0.48 0.80 0.65 A12 1.91 0.42 0.82 0.8 A13 1.96 0.38 0.84 0.77 A14 2.15 0.12 0.95 0.85 A15 1.89 0.47 0.80 0.63 A16 1.97 0.35 0.85 0.77 A17 1.89 0.53 0.78 0.67 A18 2.19 0.06 0.97 0.4 A19 1.74 0.66 0.73 0.6 A20 1.78 0.74 0.71 0.65 A21 2.03 0.31 0.87 0.63 A22 1.86 0.51 0.78 0.67
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表 3 优选的升级潜力区块
Table 3. Preferred upgrade potential blocks
区块 埋深/m 试油产量/ (m3·d-1) A1 1 825.00 25.35 A2 1 035.83 6.60 A3 1 110.00 5.90 A4 1 505.00 9.15 A6 897.50 8.10 A7 2 793.50 141.00 A8 1 845.19 41.77 A9 2 740.00 6.30 A10 2 875.00 21.60 A21 2 940.00 5.99 A22 1 725.00 32.30
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表 4 不同类型油藏升级策略
Table 4. Upgrading strategies for different types of reservoirs
油藏类别 升级的主要难点 采取的升级策略 特殊岩性 勘探技术：特殊岩性储层的预测 地震技术：高精度三维地震提高复杂条件下的断裂地质及缝洞体系成像精度，实现特殊岩性储层精细刻画 稠油 开发技术：敏感性强，油稠、产能低，达不到商业开发要求，有待技术突破 开发技术：通过热采、注水等方式提高产能，实现储量经济有效开发 中高渗 勘探技术：圈闭的识别，复杂断裂体系的描述 高精度三维地震处理解释：落实构造、断层如复杂的走滑断裂构造及潜山内部断裂空间展布、地层分布及潜山面构造特征，精细描述复杂潜山圈闭 低渗—特低渗 勘探技术：薄储层预测，致密储层甜点识别 勘探技术：发展单点高密度勘探技术，提高砂组分辨率，使得储层反演结果与实际厚度变化更加吻合；提高滩坝砂、浊积砂等致密储层甜点识别效果 低渗—特低渗 开发技术：渗透率低，产能低，能量递减快 开发技术：发展体积压裂等储层改造技术，改造储层，提高产能。对于低渗储层注水开发，补充地层能量
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表 5 渤海湾盆地某油田B区块储量升级关键参数对比
Table 5. Comparison of key parameters for reserves upgrading in block B, X oil field, Bohai Bay Basin
层位 储量类别 含油面积/km2 有效厚度/m 有效孔隙度/% 含油饱和度/% 体积系数 地面原油密度/ (g·cm-3) 沙一段1砂组 预测 5.42 21.9 10.0 60.0 1.186 0.874 控制 0.33 9.6 13.2 60.9 1.186 0.870 沙一段2砂组 预测 5.12 35.8 10.0 60.0 1.186 0.889 控制 2.34 25.5 13.2 60.9 1.186 0.880 沙二段1砂组 预测 4.58 24.5 10.0 60.0 1.186 0.889 控制 0.27 8.2 13.2 60.9 1.186 0.880
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