页岩油资源规模分布模型及敏感性研究

卢振东; 刘成林; 曾晓祥; 阳宏; 臧起彪; 吴育平; 李国雄; 冯德浩

doi:10.11781/sysydz202204730

页岩油资源规模分布模型及敏感性研究

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202204730

卢振东^{1, 2,},
刘成林^{1, 2, ,},
曾晓祥^{1, 2},
阳宏^{1, 2},
臧起彪^{1, 2},
吴育平^{1, 2},
李国雄^{1, 2},
冯德浩^{1, 2}

1.
油气资源与探测国家重点实验室, 北京 102249
2.
中国石油大学地球科学学院, 北京 102249

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41872127

详细信息

作者简介:
卢振东(1997—), 男, 在读硕士研究生, 从事石油地质勘探与资源评价。E-mail: Luzhd2019@163.com

通讯作者:
刘成林(1970—), 男, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 从事油气地球化学与资源评价、非常规油气地质研究和教学工作。E-mail: liucl@cup.edu.cn

中图分类号: TE155
计量
- 文章访问数: 400
- HTML全文浏览量: 139
- PDF下载量: 53
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-31
- 修回日期: 2022-06-07
- 刊出日期: 2022-07-28

Shale oil size distribution models and their sensitivities

LU Zhendong^{1, 2
,},
LIU Chenglin^{1, 2
, ,},
ZENG Xiaoxiang^{1, 2},
YANG Hong^{1, 2},
ZANG Qibiao^{1, 2},
WU Yuping^{1, 2},
LI Guoxiong^{1, 2},
FENG Dehao^{1, 2}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Resources and Exploration, Beijing 102249, China
2.
School of Earth Sciences, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China

摘要

摘要: 评价非常规油气资源一般采用类比法、统计法和成因法，在不断创新评价方法的同时，如何将常规油气资源评价方法改进，并应用于非常规资源评价是目前研究的一个重点和难点。以井为单元，将单井估算最终可采油气量(EUR)作为单元油气储量，建立帕累托分布模型，利用随机取样和偏态抽样原理编写程序，分析自然总体个数、形状参数和勘探系数对模型的敏感性，建立了新的页岩油资源规模分布法。该方法应用于鄂尔多斯盆地合水地区X230井区页岩油资源评价，发现数量影响油藏规模分布形状参数的大小和离散程度，当油藏发现个数大于300个时，分布模型趋于稳定；而分布模型对勘探系数的敏感性很小，这是划分EUR为评价单元的局限性所致，因为这种划分方法不存在真正意义上的“大油藏”。通过自然总体个数随形状因子的变化，确定截断点对应的个数，即所有井EUR的总和为该区的可采资源量，为6.72×10⁶ t，这与油气资源丰度法评价结果相吻合。改善后的页岩油资源规模分布法可为非常规油气资源评价提供指导。
- 帕累托分布模型 /
- 形状参数 /
- 敏感性 /
- 资源评价 /
- 页岩油 /
- 鄂尔多斯盆地
Abstract: With the rapid development of unconventional oil and gas resources, the demand for corresponding evaluation methods is increasing. At present, the evaluation methods for unconventional oil and gas resources are divided into analogy, statistical and genetic method. While constantly innovating evaluation methods, how to improve conventional methods and apply them to unconventional resource evaluation is also a focus and difficulty in current research. Taking a well as an unit and the EUR of the well as the unit's oil or gas reserves, a Pareto distribution model was established, and a program was compiled according to the principle of random sampling and skew sampling to analyze the sensitivity of number N, shape parameter and exploration coefficient E to the model. This method was applied to the shale oil resource evaluation in the X230 well block in Heshui area of Ordos Basin. Results show that the number of discoveries affects the size and dispersion of the parameters for oilfield distribution. The distribution model tends to be stable when the number is more than 300. Exploration coefficient has little influence on the sensitivity of distribution model, which is the limitation of taking EUR as evaluation unit. According to the variation of number N with shape parameter β, the number corresponding to cut-off point can be determined, that is, the sum of EUR of all wells is the recoverable resource of the area, which is 6.72×10⁶ t. The result is consistent with the evaluation of oil and gas resource abundance. This method can provide guidance for unconventional oil and gas resources evaluation.
- Pareto distribution model /
- shape parameter /
- sensitivity /
- resource evaluation /
- shale oil /
- Ordos Basin

HTML全文

图 1 研究区位置(a)及部分井位分布(b)

Figure 1. Location of study area (a) and distribution of some wells (b)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 概率统计方法拟合对数正态油藏规模分布模型

Figure 2. Fitting lognormal oilfield scale distribution model with probability and statistics methods

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 概率统计方法拟合帕累托油藏规模分布模型

Figure 3. Fitting Pareto oilfield size distribution model with probability and statistics methods

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 自然总体随机抽样分布类型柱状图

Figure 4. Histogram of random sampling distribution type of natural population

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.41)交会图

Figure 5. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.41)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.49)交会图

Figure 6. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.49)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.51)交会图

Figure 7. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.51)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 油藏发现个数(N)与油藏规模分布形状参数(β=0.52)交会图

Figure 8. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameters of oilfield size distribution (β=0.52)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 不同形状参数(β)下油藏发现个数(N)分布模型方差曲线图(F50条件下)

Figure 10. Variance curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameter β (F50)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 11 油藏总数为50时勘探系数(E)和形状参数(β)交汇图

Figure 11. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β), N=50

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 12 油藏总数为100时勘探系数(E)和形状参数(β)交汇图

Figure 12. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β), N=100

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 13 油藏总数为300时勘探系数(E)和形状参数(β)交汇图

Figure 13. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β), N=300

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 14 不同油藏发现个数(N)情况下形状参数(β)随勘探系数(E)变化趋势

Figure 14. Intersection curves of exploration factor (E) and shape parameter (β) at various N values

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 不同自然总体分布形状参数(β)下油藏发现个数(N)分布模型(F50条件下)

Figure 9. Intersection curves of number of oilfield discoveries (N) and shape parameter β (F50)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 鄂尔多斯盆地合水地区X230井区单井EUR统计

Table 1. EUR statistics of single well in X230 well block in Heshui area, Ordos Basin

井名	EUR/t	井名	EUR/t	井名	EUR/t	井名	EUR/t
GP43-57	8 751.7	GP41-52	15 977.5	GP42-65	22 327.4	GP45-64	19 527.5
GP43-55	12 800.0	GP45-66	13 735.8	GP47-64	8 450.4	GP40-73	13 807.6
GP43-54	13 334.5	GP41-54	13 060.2	GP42-64	26 264.0	GP40-71	8 984.6
GP43-60	9 212.0	GP40-54	4 545.9	GP42-62	21 299.4	GP41-65	21 791.2
GP43-61	13 845.8	GP46-64	12 090.1	GP42-58	16 019.4	GP39-55	23 282.1
GP42-61	12 353.4	GP43-67	30 121.2	GP41-56	2 996.0	GP39-56	31 766.3
GP42-60	18 179.5	GP43-68	21 049.4	GP41-55	8 079.6	GP39-53	33 072.2
GP43-58	13 005.3	GP39-54	10 195.8	GP40-58	1 332.0	GP40-74	21 490.4
GP44-65	12 748.1	GP41-59	14 085.6	GP41-57	624.0	GP41-66	36 074.1
GP43-56	11 636.4	GP45-68	8 356.9	GP41-61	9 828.2	GP39-64	18 732.1
GP47-65	2 455.0	GP44-67	33 489.4	GP40-60	1 599.0	GP39-52	49 589.3
GP43-59	10 654.9	GP41-70	11 303.6	GP41-63	19 516.0	GCH1-1	15 586.3
GP43-66	10 930.9	GP46-66	25 024.9	GP46-65	7 261.6	GP39-65	34 912.2
GP42-56	8 385.6	GP41-53	12 911.3	GP41-58	711.0	GP40-68	15 481.1
GP42-57	5 419.4	GP41-68	27 809.8	GP41-60	4 630.6	GP40-63	28 953.6
GP43-65	11 636.4	GP41-64	31 049.4	GP40-61	4 758.6	GP40-66	29 817.9
GP42-59	21 292.5	GP41-69	9 070.4	GP40-56	5 101.1	GP40-67	14 928.2
GP45-65	12 834.0	GP45-67	18 653.4	GP40-62	8 84.0	GP41-73	13 295.7
GP46-67	11 796.1	GP43-62	25 517.3	GP43-53	20 720.1	GP40-65	22 073.9
GP44-66	24 684.8	GP44-68	17 836.8	GP41-62	6 012.0	GP43-72	39 634.2
GP40-59	4 138.0

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 鄂尔多斯盆地合水地区X230井区N为300时不同勘探系数(E)下可采资源量

Table 2. Recoverable resources under different exploration factors (E) when N=300, X230 well block, Heshui area, Ordos Basin

油藏发现数(N)/个	勘探系数(E)	可采资源量/10⁶ t	平均可采资源量/10⁶ t
300	0.25	5.18	6.72
	0.50	5.60
	0.75	6.05
	1.00	6.61
	1.25	6.96
	1.50	7.39
	1.75	7.85
	2.00	8.15

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(23)

[1]	邱振, 邹才能, 李建忠, 等. 非常规油气资源评价进展与未来展望[J]. 天然气地球科学, 2013, 24(2): 238-246. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDKX201302007.htm QIU Zhen, ZOU Caineng, LI Jianzhong, et al. Unconventional petroleum resources assessment: progress and future prospects[J]. Natural Gas Geoscience, 2013, 24(2): 238-246. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TDKX201302007.htm
[2]	邹才能, 朱如凯, 吴松涛, 等. 常规与非常规油气聚集类型、特征、机理及展望: 以中国致密油和致密气为例[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(2): 173-187. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201202002.htm ZOU Caineng, ZHU Rukai, WU Songtao, et al. Types, characte-ristics, genesis and prospects of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon accumulations: taking tight oil and tight gas in China as an instance[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2012, 33(2): 173-187. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201202002.htm
[3]	张金川, 陈世敬, 李中明, 等. 页岩气资源智能评价[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2021, 11(4): 476-486. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202104002.htm ZHANG Jinchuan, CHEN Shijing, LI Zhongming, et al. Intelligent evaluation of shale gas resources[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2021, 11(4): 476-486. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202104002.htm
[4]	林会喜, 宋明水, 王圣柱, 等. 叠合盆地复杂构造带页岩油资源评价[J]. 油气地质与采收率, 2020, 27(2): 7-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS202002003.htm LIN Huixi, SONG Mingshui, WANG Shengzhu, et al. Shale oil resource evaluation in complex structural belt of superimposed basin[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency, 2020, 27(2): 7-17. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS202002003.htm
[5]	刘成林, 朱杰, 车长波, 等. 新一轮全国煤层气资源评价方法与结果[J]. 天然气工业, 2009, 29(11): 130-132. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200911046.htm LIU Chenglin, ZHU Jie, CHE Changbo, et al. Methodologies and results of the latest assessment of coalbed methane resources in China[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2009, 29(11): 130-132. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG200911046.htm
[6]	周德华, 李倩文, 蔡勋育, 等. 黔西地区红果区块煤层气资源评价与勘探潜力分析[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2020, 10(4): 12-16. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202004003.htm ZHOU Dehua, LI Qianwen, CAI Xunyu, et al. Resource assessment and exploration potential analysis of CBM in Hongguo Block, western Guizhou[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2020, 10(4): 12-16. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202004003.htm
[7]	郭秋麟, 武娜, 陈宁生, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地延长组第7油层组致密油资源评价[J]. 石油学报, 2017, 38(6): 658-665. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201706005.htm GUO Qiulin, WU Na, CHEN Ningsheng, et al. An assessment of tight oil resource in 7th oil reservoirs of Yanchang Formation, Ordos Basin[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2017, 38(6): 658-665. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201706005.htm
[8]	郭秋麟, 周长迁, 陈宁生, 等. 非常规油气资源评价方法研究[J]. 岩性油气藏, 2011, 23(4): 12-19. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YANX201104005.htm GUO Qiulin, ZHOU Changqian, CHEN Ningsheng, et al. Evaluation methods for unconventional hydrocarbon resources[J]. Lithologic Reservoir, 2011, 23(4): 12-19. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YANX201104005.htm
[9]	郭秋麟, 陈宁生, 吴晓智, 等. 致密油资源评价方法研究[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2013, 18(2): 67-76. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201302013.htm GUO Qiulin, CHEN Ningsheng, WU Xiaozhi, et al. Method for assessment of tight oil resources[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2013, 18(2): 67-76. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201302013.htm
[10]	ARPS J J, ROBERTS T G. Economics of drilling for Cretaceous oil on east flank of Denver-Julesburg Basin[J]. AAPG Bulletin, 1958, 42(11): 2549-2566.
[11]	KAUFMAN G M. Statistical decision and related techniques in oil and gas exploration[M]. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, 1962.
[12]	DREW L J, SCHUENEMEYER J H, BAWIEC W J. Estimation of the future rates of oil and gas discoveries in the western Gulf of Mexico[M]. Washington: United States Government Printing Office, 1982.
[13]	DAVIS J C, CHANG T. Estimating potential for small fields in mature petroleum province[J]. AAPG Bulletin, 1989, 73(8): 967-976.
[14]	BAKER R A, GEHMAN H M, JAMES W R, et al. Geologic field number and size assessments of oil and gas plays[J]. AAPG Bulletin, 1984, 68(4): 426-432.
[15]	ATTANASI E D, CHARPENTIER R R. Comparison of two pro-bability distributions used to model sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations: does the tail wag the assessment?[J]. Mathematical Geology, 2002, 34(6): 767-777.
[16]	LIU Chenglin, CHARPENTIER R R, SU Jin. Comparison of two methods used to model shape parameters of Pareto distributions[J]. Mathematical Geosciences, 2011, 43(7): 847-859.
[17]	徐永强, 何永宏, 陈小东, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地陇东地区长7致密储层微观孔喉特征及其对物性的影响[J]. 地质与勘探, 2019, 55(3): 870-881. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKT201903019.htm XU Yongqiang, HE Yonghong, CHEN Xiaodong, et al. Characteristics of microscopic pore throats and their influence on physical properties of the Chang 7 tight reservoir in the Longdong area, Ordos Basin[J]. Geology and Exploration, 2019, 55(3): 870-881. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKT201903019.htm
[18]	刘芬. 鄂尔多斯盆地陇东地区延长组重力流沉积特征及成因机制[D]. 北京: 中国石油大学(北京), 2016. LIU Fen. Sedimentary characteristics and genetic mechanism of gravity flows in Triassic Yanchang Formation of Longdong area, Ordos Basin[D]. Beijing: China University of Petroleum (Beijing), 2016.
[19]	谷志宇, 刘恩涛, 王香增, 等. 鄂尔多斯盆地东南部延长组七段页岩发育特征及勘探潜力[J]. 油气地质与采收率, 2021, 28(1): 95-105. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS202101013.htm GU Zhiyu, LIU Entao, WANG Xiangzeng, et al. Development characteristics and exploration potential of shale in Chang7 Member in Southeast of Ordos Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency, 2021, 28(1): 95-105. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YQCS202101013.htm
[20]	付金华, 罗安湘, 喻建, 等. 西峰油田成藏地质特征及勘探方向[J]. 石油学报, 2004, 25(2): 25-29. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB200402004.htm FU Jinhua, LUO Anxiang, YU Jian, et al. Geological features of reservoir formation and exploration strategy of Xifeng Oilfield[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2004, 25(2): 25-29. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB200402004.htm
[21]	杨华, 李士祥, 刘显阳. 鄂尔多斯盆地致密油、页岩油特征及资源潜力[J]. 石油学报, 2013, 34(1): 1-11. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201301000.htm YANG Hua, LI Shixiang, LIU Xianyang. Characteristics and resource prospects of tight oil and shale oil in Ordos Basin[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2013, 34(1): 1-11. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201301000.htm
[22]	POWER M. Lognormality in the observed size distribution of oil and gas pools as a consequence of sampling bias[J]. Mathematical Geology, 1992, 24(8): 929-945.
[23]	温银宇. 油田规模分布模型研究[D]. 北京: 中国石油大学(北京), 2014. WEN Yinyu. Research on oilfield scale distribution model[D]. Beijing: China University of Petroleum (Beijing), 2014.