Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods

Xie Yinfu; Chen Heping; Ma Zhongzhen; Zhou Yubing; Liu Yaming; Wang Renchong; Liu Suyan

doi:10.11781/sysydz201401117

Volume 36 Issue 1

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Xie Yinfu, Chen Heping, Ma Zhongzhen, Zhou Yubing, Liu Yaming, Wang Renchong, Liu Suyan. Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2014, 36(1): 117-122. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201401117

Citation:

Xie Yinfu, Chen Heping, Ma Zhongzhen, Zhou Yubing, Liu Yaming, Wang Renchong, Liu Suyan. Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2014, 36(1): 117-122. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201401117

Citation:

Xie Yinfu, Chen Heping, Ma Zhongzhen, Zhou Yubing, Liu Yaming, Wang Renchong, Liu Suyan. Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2014, 36(1): 117-122. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201401117

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Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods

doi: 10.11781/sysydz201401117

1.
Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China
2. China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company, Beijing 100034, China
3. Huanxiling Oil Production Company, Liaohe Oilfield, PetroChina, Panjin, Liaoning 124114, China

Received Date: 2012-09-05
Rev Recd Date: 2013-11-21
Publish Date: 2014-01-28

Abstract

Abstract

In 1997, the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recognized the probabilistic estimation of reserves. This method has been accepted by many international oil companies and institutions; however, the determine estimation of reserves is still dominant in China. The probabilistic estimation method was briefly introduced in this article. The difference between the two methods under different uncertainty conditions was compared. The applicability of each method was discussed. Meanwhile, the impact of function form on probabilistic estimation was analyzed. It has been concluded that the probabilistic estimation of reserves takes full account of the conservative, the most likely and the optimistic variety of situations, hence provides a more comprehensive understanding of reserves. The probabilistic estimation is applicable to bigger uncertainties while the determine estimation is applicable to smaller uncertainties. Since the function form of probabilistic estimation parameter may obviously influence estimation result and is subjective, the appropriate function form in strict accordance with relevant standards is demanded to eliminate or weaken the influence.
- reserves estimation,
- probabilistic method,
- determine method,
- uncertainty,
- function form

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References(21)

References

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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

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Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods

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Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods

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