基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例

魏绍蕾; 黄学斌; 李军; 苏映宏; 潘立生

doi:10.11781/sysydz202101161

基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161

1.
中国石化石油勘探开发研究院, 北京 100083
2.
中国石化江汉油田分公司勘探开发研究院, 武汉 430223

基金项目:

国家科技重大专项“页岩气地质建模与可采储量评价技术研究” 2016ZX05060001-033

详细信息

作者简介:
魏绍蕾(1987-), 女, 博士, 高级工程师, 从事储量评估和油气田开发规划工作。E-mail: leisurewin@163.com

中图分类号: TE155
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-05-28
- 修回日期: 2020-12-16
- 刊出日期: 2021-01-28

Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field

1.
SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute, Beijing 100083, China
2.
Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, SINOPEC Jianghan Oil Field Company, Wuhan, Hubei 430223, China

摘要

摘要: 页岩储层大面积连续分布的地质特征和“工厂化”作业的工程特性，使得同一区域内页岩气单井最终可采量(Estimated Ultimate Reserve，EUR)的统计分布具有可重复性，是概率法计算EUR的基础。常规确定性方法只能给出一个储量值，概率法能够计算储量的概率分布。四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期工程采用600 m井距开发，井间动用程度不高；为了提高气藏采收率，开展了焦石坝加密井网调整。采用概率法对加密调整方案的最终可采量进行计算，通过对焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井的地质、工程及试气情况的分析，筛选合适的类比井组，建立类比井组的EUR概率分布；借助蒙特卡洛算法，生成加密井网内页岩气平均单井EUR的概率分布，确定不同概率下的储量大小；借鉴类比井组动态储量评估参数，确定了加密井网内不同水平段长度页岩气井的典型井曲线。采用概率法实现了焦石坝气田加密井网内生产动态和最终可采量的预测，可为下一步开发方案部署和投资安排提供科学决策依据。
- 页岩气 /
- 概率法 /
- 最终可采量 /
- 焦石坝页岩气田 /
- 四川盆地
Abstract: The characteristics of shale gas reservoirs and the engineering characteristics of "factory" operation lead to repeated production performance among wells, which is the theoretical basis of a probability method to calculate estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Compared to the conventional deterministic method, the probability method can calculate a reserve probability distribution. The well spacing of the Jiaoshiba shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin is 600 m, leading to low production extent. Infill wells have been introduced in order to improve gas recovery. In this paper, a probability method was adopted to calculate the EUR for the infill adjustment. Suitable analogy wells were selected by taking geological characteristics, engineering conditions, testing data and well locations into consideration. Based on the EUR probability distribution of analogy wells, the EUR probability curves of infill wells were calculated with the Monte-Carlo method. Typical well curves were established by analyzing the decline parameters of analogy wells. Future production performance and EUR of new wells or undrilled wells can be estimated with this probability method, which is the basis for future strategic decisions.
- shale gas /
- probability method /
- estimated ultimate reserve /
- Jiaoshiba shale gas field /
- Sichuan Basin

HTML全文

图 1 概率法预测EUR的流程

Figure 1. Flow chart of EUR prediction using a probability method

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网井位分布示意

Figure 2. Well locations of the infill well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas reservoir, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气单井单位长度测试参数F与单位长度EUR关系

Figure 3. Relationship between EUR and AOF per unit length for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气单井单位长度测试参数F累计概率分布Profit图

Figure 4. Cumulative probability diagram of AOF per unit length for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井分组

Figure 5. Four sub-sections for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井分区后的单位长度无阻流量概率分布Profit图

Figure 6. Cumulative probability diagram of AOF per unit length for the four sub-sections for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期产建区类比井组概率分布

Figure 7. Cumulative probability plots of EUR per unit length for analog well groups for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网平均单位长度EUR概率分布

Figure 8. Probability plots of EUR per unit length for infilled well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网页岩气井水平段长度分布及单井EUR

Figure 9. Probability plots of well length for infilled well pattern and EUR prediction for different well lengths in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网不同水平段长度下的典型井曲线

Figure 10. Typical well curves for different well lengths of infilled well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 11 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田不同类比井组下单井长度EUR概率分布对比

Figure 11. Probability distribution of EUR per unit well length under two cases in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 12 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田不同完钻井数目下单位长度EUR概率分布对比

Figure 12. Probability distribution of EUR per unit well length for different numbers of drilled wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同P₁₀/P₉₀比值下所要求的最少类比井数目

Table 1. Least numbers of analogy wells under different P₁₀/P₉₀

P₁₀/P₉₀	最小类比井数	备注
2	15	很难出现
3	35	常见
4	60	常见
5	75	常见
6	100	常见
8	130	常见
10	170	数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
15	290	数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
20	420	数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
30	670	数据质量/模拟可能存在问题

下载: 导出CSV

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