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基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例

魏绍蕾 黄学斌 李军 苏映宏 潘立生

魏绍蕾, 黄学斌, 李军, 苏映宏, 潘立生. 基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
引用本文: 魏绍蕾, 黄学斌, 李军, 苏映宏, 潘立生. 基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
WEI Shaolei, HUANG Xuebin, LI Jun, SU Yinghong, PAN Lisheng. Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
Citation: WEI Shaolei, HUANG Xuebin, LI Jun, SU Yinghong, PAN Lisheng. Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field[J]. PETROLEUM GEOLOGY & EXPERIMENT, 2021, 43(1): 161-168. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161

基于概率法的页岩气单井最终可采量评估——以焦石坝页岩气田加密井为例

doi: 10.11781/sysydz202101161
基金项目: 

国家科技重大专项“页岩气地质建模与可采储量评价技术研究” 2016ZX05060001-033

详细信息
    作者简介:

    魏绍蕾(1987-), 女, 博士, 高级工程师, 从事储量评估和油气田开发规划工作。E-mail: leisurewin@163.com

  • 中图分类号: TE155

Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field

  • 摘要: 页岩储层大面积连续分布的地质特征和“工厂化”作业的工程特性,使得同一区域内页岩气单井最终可采量(Estimated Ultimate Reserve,EUR)的统计分布具有可重复性,是概率法计算EUR的基础。常规确定性方法只能给出一个储量值,概率法能够计算储量的概率分布。四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期工程采用600 m井距开发,井间动用程度不高;为了提高气藏采收率,开展了焦石坝加密井网调整。采用概率法对加密调整方案的最终可采量进行计算,通过对焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井的地质、工程及试气情况的分析,筛选合适的类比井组,建立类比井组的EUR概率分布;借助蒙特卡洛算法,生成加密井网内页岩气平均单井EUR的概率分布,确定不同概率下的储量大小;借鉴类比井组动态储量评估参数,确定了加密井网内不同水平段长度页岩气井的典型井曲线。采用概率法实现了焦石坝气田加密井网内生产动态和最终可采量的预测,可为下一步开发方案部署和投资安排提供科学决策依据。

     

  • 图  1  概率法预测EUR的流程

    Figure  1.  Flow chart of EUR prediction using a probability method

    图  2  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网井位分布示意

    Figure  2.  Well locations of the infill well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas reservoir, Sichuan Basin

    图  3  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气单井单位长度测试参数F与单位长度EUR关系

    Figure  3.  Relationship between EUR and AOF per unit length for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  4  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气单井单位长度测试参数F累计概率分布Profit图

    Figure  4.  Cumulative probability diagram of AOF per unit length for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  5  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井分组

    Figure  5.  Four sub-sections for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  6  四川盆地焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井分区后的单位长度无阻流量概率分布Profit图

    Figure  6.  Cumulative probability diagram of AOF per unit length for the four sub-sections for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  7  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期产建区类比井组概率分布

    Figure  7.  Cumulative probability plots of EUR per unit length for analog well groups for the first stage wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  8  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网平均单位长度EUR概率分布

    Figure  8.  Probability plots of EUR per unit length for infilled well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  9  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网页岩气井水平段长度分布及单井EUR

    Figure  9.  Probability plots of well length for infilled well pattern and EUR prediction for different well lengths in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  10  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田加密井网不同水平段长度下的典型井曲线

    Figure  10.  Typical well curves for different well lengths of infilled well pattern in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  11  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田不同类比井组下单井长度EUR概率分布对比

    Figure  11.  Probability distribution of EUR per unit well length under two cases in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    图  12  四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田不同完钻井数目下单位长度EUR概率分布对比

    Figure  12.  Probability distribution of EUR per unit well length for different numbers of drilled wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin

    表  1  不同P10/P90比值下所要求的最少类比井数目

    Table  1.   Least numbers of analogy wells under different P10/P90

    P10/P90 最小类比井数 备注
    2 15 很难出现
    3 35 常见
    4 60 常见
    5 75 常见
    6 100 常见
    8 130 常见
    10 170 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    15 290 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    20 420 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    30 670 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-05-28
  • 修回日期:  2020-12-16
  • 刊出日期:  2021-01-28

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