Shale gas EUR estimation based on a probability method: a case study of infill wells in Jiaoshiba shale gas field
-
摘要: 页岩储层大面积连续分布的地质特征和“工厂化”作业的工程特性,使得同一区域内页岩气单井最终可采量(Estimated Ultimate Reserve,EUR)的统计分布具有可重复性,是概率法计算EUR的基础。常规确定性方法只能给出一个储量值,概率法能够计算储量的概率分布。四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田一期工程采用600 m井距开发,井间动用程度不高;为了提高气藏采收率,开展了焦石坝加密井网调整。采用概率法对加密调整方案的最终可采量进行计算,通过对焦石坝一期产建区页岩气井的地质、工程及试气情况的分析,筛选合适的类比井组,建立类比井组的EUR概率分布;借助蒙特卡洛算法,生成加密井网内页岩气平均单井EUR的概率分布,确定不同概率下的储量大小;借鉴类比井组动态储量评估参数,确定了加密井网内不同水平段长度页岩气井的典型井曲线。采用概率法实现了焦石坝气田加密井网内生产动态和最终可采量的预测,可为下一步开发方案部署和投资安排提供科学决策依据。Abstract: The characteristics of shale gas reservoirs and the engineering characteristics of "factory" operation lead to repeated production performance among wells, which is the theoretical basis of a probability method to calculate estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Compared to the conventional deterministic method, the probability method can calculate a reserve probability distribution. The well spacing of the Jiaoshiba shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin is 600 m, leading to low production extent. Infill wells have been introduced in order to improve gas recovery. In this paper, a probability method was adopted to calculate the EUR for the infill adjustment. Suitable analogy wells were selected by taking geological characteristics, engineering conditions, testing data and well locations into consideration. Based on the EUR probability distribution of analogy wells, the EUR probability curves of infill wells were calculated with the Monte-Carlo method. Typical well curves were established by analyzing the decline parameters of analogy wells. Future production performance and EUR of new wells or undrilled wells can be estimated with this probability method, which is the basis for future strategic decisions.
-
Key words:
- shale gas /
- probability method /
- estimated ultimate reserve /
- Jiaoshiba shale gas field /
- Sichuan Basin
-
表 1 不同P10/P90比值下所要求的最少类比井数目
Table 1. Least numbers of analogy wells under different P10/P90
P10/P90 最小类比井数 备注 2 15 很难出现 3 35 常见 4 60 常见 5 75 常见 6 100 常见 8 130 常见 10 170 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题 15 290 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题 20 420 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题 30 670 数据质量/模拟可能存在问题 -
[1] 贾承造. 美国SEC油气储量评估方法[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2004.JIA Chengzao. SEC estimation approach for oil & gas reserves[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2004. [2] 朱维耀, 亓倩, 马千, 等. 页岩气不稳定渗流压力传播规律和数学模型[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2016, 43(2): 261-267. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201602014.htmZHU Weiyao, QI Qian, MA Qian, et al. Unstable seepage modeling and pressure propagation of shale gas reservoirs[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2016, 43(2): 261-267. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201602014.htm [3] 王勇, 张林霞, 徐剑良, 等. 页岩气井产量递减分析经验法优化应用研究[J]. 石油化工应用, 2020, 39(1): 8-12. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NXSH202001003.htmWANG Yong, ZHANG Linxia, XU Jianliang, et al. Empirical method for shale gas well production decline analysis optimization applied research[J]. Petrochemical Industry Application, 2020, 39(1): 8-12. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NXSH202001003.htm [4] 汤亚顽. 涪陵页岩气田可采储量评价方法优选[J]. 江汉石油科技, 2019, 29(4): 23-34.TANG Yawan. Optimization of recoverable reserves assessment for Fuling shale gas field[J]. Jianghan Petroleum Science and Technology, 2019, 29(4): 23-34. [5] 覃利娟. 概率法在油气储量不确定性分析中的应用[J]. 断块油气田, 2019, 26(6): 723-727. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT201906010.htmQIN Lijuan. Application of probability method to uncertainty analysis of oil and gas reserves[J]. Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field, 2019, 26(6): 723-727. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DKYT201906010.htm [6] 王永祥, 李建忠. 非常规油气区带未开发储量评估指南[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2012.WANG Yongxiang, LI Jianzhong. Gudelines for the practical evaluation of undeveloped reserves in resource plays[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2012. [7] 王永祥, 张君峰, 谢锦龙, 等. 《石油资源管理体系应用指南》导读[M]. 北京: 石油工业出版社, 2012.WANG Yongxiang, ZHANG Junfeng, XIE Jinlong, et al. A conduct on guidelines for application of the petroleum resources management system[M]. Beijing: Petroleum Industry Press, 2012. [8] SPE, AAPG, WPC, et al. Guidelines for application of the petroleum resources management system[M]. Huston: Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2011. [9] 董大忠, 邹才能, 杨桦, 等. 中国页岩气勘探开发进展与发展前景[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(S1): 107-114. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB2012S1015.htmDONG Dazhong, ZOU Caineng, YANG Hua, et al. Progress and prospects of shale gas exploration and development in China[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2012, 33(S1): 107-114. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB2012S1015.htm [10] 马永生, 蔡勋育, 赵培荣. 中国页岩气勘探开发理论认识与实践[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2018, 45(4): 561-574. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201804004.htmMA Yongsheng, CAI Xunyu, ZHAO Peirong. China's shale gas exploration and development: understanding and practice[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2018, 45(4): 561-574. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201804004.htm [11] 邹才能, 陶士振, 袁选俊, 等. "连续型"油气藏及其在全球的重要性: 成藏、分布与评价[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2009, 36(6): 669-682. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200906003.htmZOU Caineng, TAO Shizhen, YUAN Xuanjun, et al. Global importance of "continuous" petroleum reservoirs: accumulation, distribution and evaluation[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2009, 36(6): 669-682. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK200906003.htm [12] 易积正, 王超. 四川盆地焦石坝地区龙马溪组海相页岩储层非均质性特征[J]. 石油实验地质, 2018, 40(1): 13-19. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801013YI Jizheng, WANG Chao. Differential pore development characteristics in various shale lithofacies of Longmaxi Formation in Jiaoshiba area, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2018, 40(1): 13-19. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801013 [13] 陈劲松, 韩洪宝, 年静波, 等. 概率法在页岩气未开发最终可采量评估中的应用: 以北美某成熟页岩气区块为例[J]. 天然气工业, 2018, 38(7): 52-58. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG201807010.htmCHEN Jinsong, HAN Hongbao, NIAN Jingbo, et al. Application of the probability method to undeveloped EUR assessment of shale gas: a case study on one mature shale gas block in North America[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2018, 38(7): 52-58. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG201807010.htm [14] 黄昌武. 页岩油气压裂理论方法和技术体系初步形成[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(4): 443. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201204008.htmHUANG Changwu. Theoretical methodology and technical system for shale reservoir fracturing[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(4): 443. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201204008.htm [15] 吴奇, 胥云, 王晓泉, 等. 非常规油气藏体积改造技术: 内涵、优化设计与实现[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(3): 352-358. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201203013.htmWU Qi, XU Yun, WANG Xiaoquan, et al. Volume fracturing techno-logy of unconventional reservoirs: connotation, optimization design and implementation[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(3): 352-358. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201203013.htm [16] 王玉满, 董大忠, 李建忠, 等. 川南下志留统龙马溪组页岩气储层特征[J]. 石油学报, 2012, 33(4): 551-561. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201204004.htmWANG Yuman, DONG Dazhong, LI Jianzhong, et al. Reservoir characteristics of shale gas in Longmaxi Formation of the Lower Silurian, southern Sichuan[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2012, 33(4): 551-561. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYXB201204004.htm [17] 郭彤楼, 张汉荣. 四川盆地焦石坝页岩气田形成与富集高产模式[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2014, 41(1): 28-36. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201401003.htmGUO Tonglou, ZHANG Hanrong. Formation and enrichment mode of Jiaoshiba shale gas field, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2014, 41(1): 28-36. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201401003.htm [18] 刘智颖, 张柏桥, 许巍, 等. 焦石坝地区页岩Cole-Cole模型参数的快速计算方法[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2020, 10(5): 42-48. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202005009.htmLIU Zhiying, ZHANG Baiqiao, XU Wei, et al. A fast computing method for rock electric parameters of Cole-Cole model in Jiaoshiba zone[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2020, 10(5): 42-48. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ202005009.htm [19] 李金磊, 尹成, 王明飞, 等. 四川盆地涪陵焦石坝地区保存条件差异性分析[J]. 石油实验地质, 2019, 41(3): 341-347. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201903341LI Jinlei, YIN Cheng, WANG Mingfei, et al. Preservation condition differences in Jiaoshiba area, Fuling, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2019, 41(3): 341-347. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201903341 [20] 陈新军, 包书景, 侯读杰, 等. 页岩气资源评价方法与关键参数探讨[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2012, 39(5): 566-571. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201205008.htmCHEN Xinjun, BAO Shujing, HOU Dujie, et al. Methods and key parameters of shale gas resources evaluation[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2012, 39(5): 566-571. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SKYK201205008.htm [21] 方栋梁, 孟志勇. 页岩气富集高产主控因素分析: 以四川盆地涪陵地区五峰组—龙马溪组一段页岩为例[J]. 石油实验地质, 2020, 42(1): 37-41. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202001037FANG Dongliang, MENG Zhiyong. Main controlling factors of shale gas enrichment and high yield: a case study of Wufeng-Longmaxi formations in Fuling area, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2020, 42(1): 37-41. doi: 10.11781/sysydz202001037 [22] 胡德高, 刘超. 四川盆地涪陵页岩气田单井可压性地质因素研究[J]. 石油实验地质, 2018, 40(1): 20-24. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801020HU Degao, LIU Chao. Geological factors of well fracability in Fuling shale gas field, Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology and Experiment, 2018, 40(1): 20-24. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201801020 [23] 张汉荣, 王强, 倪楷, 等. 川东南五峰—龙马溪组页岩储层六性特征及主控因素分析[J]. 石油实验地质, 2016, 38(3): 320-325. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201603320ZHANG Hanrong, WANG Qiang, NI Kai, et al. Six characteristics and main controlling factors of shale reservoirs in the Wufeng-Longmaxi formations, southeastern Sichuan Basin[J]. Petroleum Geology & Experiment, 2016, 38(3): 320-325. doi: 10.11781/sysydz201603320 [24] 庞河清, 熊亮, 魏力民, 等. 川南深层页岩气富集高产主要地质因素分析: 以威荣页岩气田为例[J]. 天然气工业, 2019, 39(S1): 78-84. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG2019S1014.htmPANG Heqing, XIONG Liang, WEI Limin, et al. Analysis of geolo-gical factors for high productivity in Chuannan deep shale gas reservoirs: taking Weirong shale gas field as an example[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2019, 39(S1): 78-84. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-TRQG2019S1014.htm [25] 刘华, 王卫红, 王妍妍, 等. 页岩气井产能表征方法研究[J]. 油气藏评价与开发, 2019, 9(5): 63-69. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ201905008.htmLIU Hua, WANG Weihong, WANG Yanyan, et al. Productivity characterization method of shale gas wells[J]. Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2019, 9(5): 63-69. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTDQ201905008.htm [26] 熊小林. 威远页岩气井EUR主控因素量化评价研究[J]. 中国石油勘探, 2019, 24(4): 532-538. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201904013.htmXIONG Xiaolin. Quantitative evaluation of controlling factors on EUR of shale gas wells in Weiyuan block[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2019, 24(4): 532-538. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KTSY201904013.htm [27] 宋振响, 徐旭辉, 王保华, 等. 页岩气资源评价方法研究进展与发展方向[J]. 石油与天然气地质, 2020, 41(5): 1038-1047. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202005015.htmSong Zhenxiang, Xu Xuhui, Wang Baohua, et al. Advances in shale gas resource assessment methods and their future evolvement[J]. Oil & Gas Geology, 2020, 41(5): 1038-1047. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SYYT202005015.htm -